Subscription Growth Ceiling Calculator
Every subscription business hits a ceiling — the point where churn catches up to acquisition and net growth flatlines. This calculator shows you exactly when that happens and how much ARR is at stake.
What Is a Growth Ceiling?
A growth ceiling is the maximum number of subscribers (or MRR) your business can reach given your current acquisition rate and churn rate. It's the steady state where new customers in equals customers lost.
If you add 100 customers/month with 5% monthly churn, your ceiling is 2,000 subscribers. After that, you're losing 100/month (5% of 2,000) — exactly what you're adding. Growth stops.
Breaking Through the Ceiling
There are only two levers to raise your growth ceiling: acquire more customers or reduce churn. Here's the relative impact:
Reduce churn by 1%
~25–50% higher ceiling
Going from 5% to 4% churn raises your ceiling from 2,000 to 2,500 subscribers — a 25% increase from a 1-point improvement.
Add 25% more acquisition
~25% higher ceiling
Going from 100 to 125 new customers/month raises your ceiling proportionally — but costs real money. Churn reduction is often free.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I calculate my subscription growth ceiling?
Your growth ceiling is calculated by dividing your monthly new subscribers by your monthly churn rate. For example, if you add 100 subscribers per month with a 5% monthly churn rate, your ceiling is 2,000 subscribers (100 / 0.05). At that point, you're losing as many subscribers as you're gaining.
What is a good monthly churn rate for SaaS?
For B2B SaaS, a good monthly churn rate is 1-2% (12-22% annually). For B2C subscriptions, 3-5% monthly is common. Consumer apps and media subscriptions often see 5-10% monthly churn. Lower churn dramatically raises your growth ceiling — reducing churn from 5% to 4% raises your ceiling by 25%.
How does churn affect MRR growth?
Churn creates a compounding drag on MRR growth. As your subscriber base grows, the absolute number of churned subscribers increases even if the churn rate stays constant. Eventually, monthly churn equals monthly acquisition and net growth flatlines — this is your growth ceiling.
Should I focus on reducing churn or increasing acquisition?
Reducing churn typically has a larger impact on your growth ceiling than increasing acquisition. A 1-point reduction in churn rate (e.g., 5% to 4%) can raise your ceiling by 25%, while a 25% increase in acquisition only raises it proportionally. Churn reduction is also often cheaper than acquiring new customers.
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